Astro Meteorology and
Economics
What has the nation’s GDP growth got to do with the monsoon ? Everything
!
The India Meterological Dept is considering declaring the monsoon to be a
” good monsoon “, in sharp contrast with the 2009 monsoon, which was more
or less a failure.
A good monsoon means rising water levels in the reservoirs and dams. More
power. It will raise farm output, control inflation ( particularly food
inflation, which was 17.6% ) and spur economic growth.
60% of arable land is rain-fed. Hence monsoon showers are critical to soya
bean, edible oil, sugarcane, rice etc. In India, the Monsoon is the real
Finance Minister !
Because of the bad monsoon of 2009, Indian agri growth rose only .2%. On
the other hand, this year’s monsoon will trigger 2.5 % agri growth and 8.5 %
GDP growth. If India has sufficient infrastructure, the GDP growth will be
more than 10%. A 4% agri growth forecast, many feel, will be too ambitious.
Also a double digit GDP forecast !
Astro Meteorology is right again. The South West Monsoon hit Kerala on May
19th, from Karthika Njattuvela ( Sun’s transit of Eta Tauri )
onwards, slightly ahead of schedule. Sporadic rains characterised both Karthika
and Rohini Njattuvelas ( Sun’s transit of Alpha Tauri ). Rains
accelerated after Makiryam Njattuvela ( Sun’s transit of Lamda
Orionis ). From 11th, 1130 AM onwards it has been raining incessantly. It is
raining heavily now ( 13062010, 0300 PM ). There were non stop rains for 30
hours.
Tamil Nadu never used to get the South West Monsoon. But this time she got
it ! There were rains in Bangalore and Surat.
As Thiruvathira Njattuvela ( Sun’s transit of Alpha Orionis )
will take over from 22nd June onwards, we expect the IMD to declare this
monsoon as an ” excellent monsoon”.
Farmers use Thiruvathira Njattuvela for planting seeds,
particularly beans and pepper.
Timely onset of monsoon has raised hopes of better production. The sugar
output will be around 18.5 million tonnes this year.
As the Summer Season can be destructive ( more than 100 people died due to
sunstroke ) monsoons can also be destructive. Fishermen are warned not to
venture into the sea. The sea has attacked some 50 houses in Chavakkad Beach.
Seven fishing boats were devoured by the sea. Winds at 60 km per hour are
lashing Kerala. Those who are living on the low lying areas of Kerala are
warned. On the positive side, rivers are overflowing, paddy fields are
overflowing and wells, ponds, and lakes are full of water.
Edava Pathi & Its Two Branches
As the Sun enters the 15th degree of Taurus or Edava Pathi, the
Arabian Sea Branch of the South West Monsoon first lash the Western Ghats, the
rainforests of India, normally around May 29. The Western Ghats of coastal
Kerala becomes the first place to receive it. This branch moves northwards
along the Western Ghats, with precipitation on the coastal areas. ( coastal
Kerala, coastal Karnataka and coastal Maharashtra . Bombay, on coastal
Maharashtra, receives it on June 10th ). As the winds do not cross the Western
Ghats, the eastern areas of the Ghats do not receive this precipitation.
At around the same time, the Bay of Bengal Branch of the S W Monsoon, picks
up moisture laden particles from the Bay of Bengal and moves towards North
East India, flowing over the Bay of Bengal. Immense rain mark the entry of
these winds at the Eastern Himalayas. Shillong, on the southern slopes of the
mighty Himalayas, is one of the most moist places in India. The winds then
turn west, travelling over the Indo Gangetic plains at a rate of 7/14 days per
state, showering its benign precipitation all along its way.
In the heavens, Venus, the water planet, moved to watery Cancer on 09 June.
Jupiter in watery Pisces also augurs well for rains. Last year, Jupiter was in
the Saturnine ( hence airy ) sign of Capricorn, which never indicated rains !
Annual Rainfall is great on the Malabar Coast, as this coastal area is graced
by Summer Rains, the North East Monsoon and the South West Monsoon.
